Who is likely to be named Super Bowl LIX referee? [UPDATED]

Football Zebras analysis

Editor’s note: On Jan. 21, the NFL announced that Ron Torbert will be the referee for Super Bowl LIX. We did not characterize Smith as a “lock” or a projection with “high confidence” as in years past. Our analysis was based upon longstanding criteria and patterns that have obviously changed with the new officiating leadership. We congratulate Shawn Smith and the others mentioned below on a spectacular year in our estimation as well as to Torbert and the all-star officiating crew assigned to Super Bowl LIX.

The original post is below.

As the officiating assignments for the Divisional Playoffs have been announced, there is one referee to watch this weekend, as he warms up for a potential Super Bowl assignment.

With reasonable certainty, Football Zebras has determined that Shawn Smith will be the referee of Super Bowl LIX. This determination, as well as the determination of the remaining crew members, was made based on postseason assignment patterns that have been in place for over a decade. Most notably, the Super Bowl officials are selected from the pool of 28 on-field officials who worked the Divisional Playoffs.

These minimum qualifications apply for Super Bowl officials:

UPDATE: The qualifications listed below applied up to last year’s crew.

Some officials on the field this weekend have also worked as alternate officials in the Wild Card round last week. Super Bowl officials, in the current assignment pattern, do not have that third postseason assignment.

Using these patterns and procedures, we can determine the likely officials to be on the field in New Orleans on February 9.

Smith was ranked high by the Football Zebras editorial staff, and his assignment to the Divisional Playoffs only solidifies the choice. All four referees working are eligible for a Super Bowl, with Smith and Clay Martin looking for their first, but our sources have not given any reason to change our initial consensus. There is always a backup assigned in case of injury or major controversy, and that appears to be three-time Super Bowl referee Carl Cheffers.

At the umpire position, the choice is pretty academic. Bryan Neale is the only umpire working the Divisional Playoffs who is qualified to work the Super Bowl. Neale was on the crew for Super Bowl LVI.

Because the referee-umpire tandem advances to the Super Bowl (with one exception) this further anchors Smith’s chances. Both are working the Rams-Eagles divisional game.

The certainty can be applied to the down judge position: Kent Payne is the only one at the position qualified, meaning he is about to be assigned to his fourth Super Bowl.

At line judge, there are three perennial postseason officials — the fourth is only in his first playoff-eligible season — so this could go in any direction. All three have not been to the Super Bowl yet, and we give a slight edge to Tim Podraza.

Field judge Mearl Robinson is the only Divisional round official at his position to not work as an alternate last week. Super Bowl officials do not typically work three postseason games, so this fact alone makes him the frontrunner, which is also borne out by his on-field performance this season. Robinson is working the same sideline as Podraza this weekend, and it’s possible that the league elevates the sideline tandem to the big game.

Side judge Boris Cheek — who just became the new standard bearer as the official to work the most games in NFL history — is also the only at his position, after removing ineligible officials and alternates from the Wild Card Playoffs. This would also be his fourth Super Bowl.

At the back judge are 10-year official Jonah Monroe and Greg Yette in his 15th season. Who is the frontrunner? “The internal debate is 50/50” between the two, one officiating source characterized discussions among the officiating staff. Narrowly, we select Monroe, but this really could be Yette’s season.

Projected crew

With that in mind, our likely Super Bowl crew is as follows: